Pending Home Sales Up 4th Month; Housing Bottom is Here

by Alexis McGee 1. July 2009 10:25

Last night in my New Investor Webinar I shared with my clients all the key indicators showing how housing is not only stabilizing, but improving in many areas. (You can get the replay by calling 800-310-7730 x2 and signup for next months webinar here.) Just today the Pending home sales show a sustained uptrend, rising for the fourth month in a row, from our very favorable housing affordability and a first-time buyer tax credit boosting activity, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index based on contracts signed in May, increased 0.1 percent from an upwardly revised reading in April, and is 6.7 percent higher than May 2008. The last time there were four consecutive monthly gains was in October 2004. Wow, this market is really heating up. And if you haven't already jumped in to get your deals, you need to do that NOW. And I will show you how.... read on to the end...

Regional Breakdown:

Northeast rose 3.1 percent May over April and is 6.8 percent above May 2008.

Midwest slipped 1.3 percent May over April, but is 11.4 percent above May 2008.

South declined 1.7 percent May over April, but is 7.9 percent higher than May 2008.

West rose 2.2 percent May over Apri, and is 0.7 percent above May 2008.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index remains at historic highs. The affordability index fell to 171.6 in May from an upwardly revised 178.8 in April, which was the highest on record dating back to 1970. “Under these conditions the typical family would devote only 14.6 percent of gross income to mortgage principal and interest, which is one of the lowest percentages on record,” Yun said.

A median-income family, earning $60,800, could afford a home costing $296,700 in May with a 20 percent downpayment, assuming 25 percent of gross income is devoted to mortgage principal and interest. Affordability conditions for first-time buyers with the same income and small downpayments are roughly 80 percent of what a median-income family can afford. The affordable price was significantly higher than the median existing single-family home price in May, which was $172,900.

The first-time buyer tax credit also is benefiting the market. “Strong activity by entry level buyers is helping to absorb inventory and allow some existing owners to make a trade,” Yun said.

Pending home sales is a forward looking report. Therefore you should see existing-home sales continue to trend up through the rest of the year. Even with all the new foreclosures hitting the market, with builders not building, supply is shrinking. In some parts of the country, like California, housing supply is less than a 4 month supply. That is great news for us, as you will see multiple offers when you price your houses right on the resale. And at the same time, there is a ton of inventory from the banks that has NOT hit the market, but they own it and need to sell it.  That is what we call "phantom inventory" and you absolutely want to work those leads for bottom picking deals.

The best way to find those deals, and buy them right, is by following my 7 step instructions as outlined here. Then attend my next Mastering Mini Lab Webinar on July 14th to learn "How to Find the Money for Your Deals" as outlined here. Call Jim or Andy and they can help you out... 800-310-7730 x2

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , ,

Financial Markets | Housing Market | The Economy

Home Price Improvement; Tonights FREE Investor Conference

by Alexis McGee 30. June 2009 07:55

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April came out today showing the annual price decline has improved in both their monthly and annual returns. Considering this is their April report, early in the buying season, I am imagining a much better report for May and June when those come out over the next two months. The problem is, by the time they come out and confirm what I (and Jim Cramer from thestreet.com, see below) have been saying for a while. The housing market is stabilizing and the worst is behind us. (I will be discussing this and more tonight in my FREE Live New Foreclosure Investor Webinar at 6pm PDT (9pm EST). You must register in advance, so make sure you call 800-310-7730 x2 or go HERE now.)

More from Case-Shiller...

The S&P/Case Shiller 20-city home price index fell 18.1% in April from a year ago versus forecasts for a drop of 18.6%.

But on a month-over-month basis, the index showed some improvement. Prices fell 0.6% versus March, after posting a 2.2% drop in the previous month.

"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month's data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.

"The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market," Mr. Blitzer commented.

In terms of annual declines, the three worst performing MSAs continue to be the same three from the Sunbelt. Phoenix was down 35.3% in April, Las Vegas declined 32.2% and San Francisco fell 28.0%. Denver, Dallas and Boston continue to fare the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Portland and Seattle posted record annual declines in April. For the month Dallas was the best performer returning +1.7%, while Las Vegas was the worst performer down 3.5%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 21 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

This just in from Jim Cramer... Stay Ahead of the Lagging Housing Index

Terrific! The Case-Shiller index says home prices bottomed in June! That's right, June figures showed that all 20 metropolitan areas increased since the previous month, ending the long slide, and the keepers of the index declared that a bottom in housing had occurred June 30.

There's a problem, though, a problem I knew that would cause an issue when I made my prediction that prices would bottom June 30. The index doesn't give you a June reading until the end of August. At that point it will be so painfully obvious it won't matter.

Yep, it will take two months for this silly index to register June readings, and if you're an investor, by then it will be too late. It will be obvious that foreclosed property held by banks will be worth more than it was when the institutions repossessed them, and that the Other Real Estate Owned category will begin to go down in value from sales or actually be viewed as a positive because there will be so little inventory left, a combination of low price, low rates -- remember that 5.5% rate that freaked people out? we've round-tripped that back -- and little new home construction.

The hazards of waiting for an all-clear have never been more deadly for those debating buying Bank of America or U.S. Bancorp or Wells Fargo, which are so levered to Case-Shiller. I own BAC and WFC, and I have to tell you that by the time you get the all-clear, I expect to be cutting these positions in half to take the gains I expect when everyone recognizes the housing bottom.

As usual, I do not expect this to be good news for the homebuilders. The homes being sold are foreclosed homes that must be sold, and they are driving down the cost of a new home to the point where it is not economical for many builders to build, something that should have happened a year ago. I see people buying Lennar and KB Home and that's fine, but don't do it on my account.

Oh, and despite the endless attempts by editors to somehow imply that a foreclosed home sale isn't any good vis-a-vis a non-foreclosure sale, I come back and say, so what? A home sale is a home sale. Anything that removes inventory gives you equilibrium, and equilibrium means an end to house price depreciation, which was the root cause of the recession and was the genesis of the short-lived garden-variety depression bracketed by the fall of Lehman and the announcement by a few key banks in early March that they were profitable.

Thoughts from Alexis: Second half of 2009 is going to be a great time to invest in real estate, with house depreciation behind us. Since there is no reason to pay retail, when you can buy wholesale foreclosures, you will need to get your ducks in a row right now, and get to work learning how to find, structure and close great foreclosure deals now, while we still have them. Yes, there are alot of foreclosures in the system right now, and more on their way, but with housing stabilizing, we won't have this window of opportunity for long.

I will be discussing this and more tonight in my FREE Live New Foreclosure Investor Webinar at 6pm PDT (9pm EST). You must register in advance, so make sure you call 800-310-7730 x2 or go HERE now. Talk to you tonight!

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , ,

Home Price Improvement; Tonights FREE Investor Conference

by Alexis McGee 30. June 2009 07:33

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April came out today showing the annual price decline has improved in both their monthly and annual returns. Considering this is their April report, early in the buying season, I am imagining a much better report for May and June when those come out over the next two months. The problem is, by the time they come out and confirm what I (and Jim Cramer from thestreet.com, see below) have been saying for a while. The housing market is stabilizing and the worst is behind us. (I will be discussing this and more tonight in my FREE Live New Foreclosure Investor Webinar at 6pm PDT (9pm EST). You must register in advance, so make sure you call 800-310-7730 x2 or go HERE now.)

More from Case-Shiller...

"The pace of decline in residential real estate slowed in April," says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. "In addition to the 10-City and 20-City Composites, 13 of the 20 metro areas also saw improvement in their annual return compared to that of March. Furthermore, every metro area, except for Charlotte, recorded an improvement in monthly returns over March. While one month's data cannot determine if a turnaround has begun; it seems that some stabilization may be appearing in some of the regions. We are entering the seasonally strong period in the housing market, so it will take some time to determine if a recovery is really here.

"The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market," Mr. Blitzer commented.

In terms of annual declines, the three worst performing MSAs continue to be the same three from the Sunbelt. Phoenix was down 35.3% in April, Las Vegas declined 32.2% and San Francisco fell 28.0%. Denver, Dallas and Boston continue to fare the best in terms of annual declines down 4.9%, 5.0% and 7.7%, respectively. Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, New York, Portland and Seattle posted record annual declines in April. For the month Dallas was the best performer returning +1.7%, while Las Vegas was the worst performer down 3.5%.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 21 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

Stay Ahead of the Lagging Housing Index
By Jim Cramer

Terrific! The Case-Shiller index says home prices bottomed in June! That's right, June figures showed that all 20 metropolitan areas increased since the previous month, ending the long slide, and the keepers of the index declared that a bottom in housing had occurred June 30.

There's a problem, though, a problem I knew that would cause an issue when I made my prediction that prices would bottom June 30. The index doesn't give you a June reading until the end of August. At that point it will be so painfully obvious it won't matter.

Yep, it will take two months for this silly index to register June readings, and if you're an investor, by then it will be too late. It will be obvious that foreclosed property held by banks will be worth more than it was when the institutions repossessed them, and that the Other Real Estate Owned category will begin to go down in value from sales or actually be viewed as a positive because there will be so little inventory left, a combination of low price, low rates -- remember that 5.5% rate that freaked people out? we've round-tripped that back -- and little new home construction.

The hazards of waiting for an all-clear have never been more deadly for those debating buying Bank of America or U.S. Bancorp or Wells Fargo, which are so levered to Case-Shiller. I own BAC and WFC, and I have to tell you that by the time you get the all-clear, I expect to be cutting these positions in half to take the gains I expect when everyone recognizes the housing bottom.

As usual, I do not expect this to be good news for the homebuilders. The homes being sold are foreclosed homes that must be sold, and they are driving down the cost of a new home to the point where it is not economical for many builders to build, something that should have happened a year ago. I see people buying Lennar and KB Home and that's fine, but don't do it on my account.

Oh, and despite the endless attempts by editors to somehow imply that a foreclosed home sale isn't any good vis-a-vis a non-foreclosure sale, I come back and say, so what? A home sale is a home sale. Anything that removes inventory gives you equilibrium, and equilibrium means an end to house price depreciation, which was the root cause of the recession and was the genesis of the short-lived garden-variety depression bracketed by the fall of Lehman and the announcement by a few key banks in early March that they were profitable.

Thoughts from Alexis: Second half of 2009 is going to be a great time to invest in real estate, with house depreciation behind us. Since there is no reason to pay retail, when you can buy wholesale foreclosures, you will need to get your ducks in a row right now, and get to work learning how to find, structure and close great foreclosure deals now, while we still have them. Yes, there are alot of foreclosures in the system right now, and more on their way, but with housing stabilizing, we won't have this window of opportunity for long.

I will be discussing this and more tonight in my FREE Live New Foreclosure Investor Webinar at 6pm PDT (9pm EST). You must register in advance, so make sure you call 800-310-7730 x2 or go HERE now. Talk to you tonight!

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Be the first to rate this post

  • Currently 0/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , ,

General | Housing Market | The Economy

California Housing Comeback Gathers Steam

by Alexis McGee 29. June 2009 08:08

California Association of Realtors released their May resale numberse again, there are big increases - not only number of homes sold - but a huge INCREASE in the median price for the 3rd month in a row (and the largest month over month increase since 1979) - and another decrease in supply (well under 6 months). The California Housing Comeback is definitely here and gathering momentum. This is big news... but no one is reporting it!

If you are an investor or buyer looking for great foreclosure deals, before they are gone, you really need to get off the fence NOW. Make sure you don't miss my FREE Foreclosure Investor Webinar TOMORROW, Tuesday, June 30th, 6pm PDT (9pm EST) where I will discuss how to make serious money buying low and selling quickly, without needing any of your own money. Make sure you register early as we have limited free space from our conference provider. MORE HERE or call 800-310-7730 x2

Here are the highlights:

  • Existing, single-family home sales increased 35.2 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted rate of 556,590 on an annualized basis.

  • The statewide median price of an existing single-family home increased 4.2 percent in May to $267,570, compared with April 2009.

  • C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index fell to 4.2 months in May, compared with 8.7 months in May 2008.

“With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years.

“The sales gains over last year have diminished in recent months,” he added. “This trend is expected to continue through the end of the year, as limited inventory at the moderate and low end of the market constrains sales activity,” he said.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 556,590 in May at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 35.2 percent from the revised 411,770 sales pace recorded in May 2008. Sales in May 2009 increased 2.9 percent compared with the previous month.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2009 was $267,570, a 30.4 percent decrease from the revised $384,540 median for May 2008, C.A.R. reported. The May 2009 median price rose 4.2 percent compared with April’s $256,700 median price.

“The statewide median price rose for the third consecutive month in May, posting the largest monthly increase on record for the month of May, according to statistics dating back to 1979,” said C.A.R. Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Nearly all regions in the state reported positive month-to-month changes in median price.

“Inventory levels are well below the long-run average of seven months, which may account for the increase in median price,” added Appleton-Young. “Although the state continues to operate in a bifurcated market, improved access to lending and price adjustments have led to increased activity in the high-end segment,” she added.

Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for May 2009:

  • C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in May 2009 was 4.2 months, compared with 8.7 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.

  • Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.86 percent during May 2009, compared with 6.04 percent in May 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.75 percent in May 2009, compared with 5.24 percent in May 2008.

  • The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 53.5 days in May 2009, compared with 49.2 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.

In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, nine of the 353 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)

Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for April may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through
C.A.R. Online Here. 

See May 2009 Regional Sales and Price Activity State Chart Here.

More Housing News Coming this Week:

S&P Case-Shiller Housing Price Index: Despite the significance of U.S. home price data, this index holds a two-month lag, meaning data released Tuesday will actually be from April. This lag marginally reduces the index's importance compared to some of the other more timely housing market indicators.

Pending Home Sales: A strong number in this index would help support the case of a recovery in the U.S. housing market, which could have a moderate impact on trading, and is a good indicator of sentiment nonetheless.

Don't Forget: A Must Not Miss Event! My FREE Foreclosure Investor Webinar is TOMORROW, Tuesday, June 30th, 6pm PDT (9pm EST) where I will discuss how to make serious money buying low and selling quickly, without needing any of your own money. Make sure you register early as we have limited free space from our conference provider. MORE HERE or call 800-310-7730 x2

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , ,

Housing Market | The Economy

Nevada Up Too: Big 3 Markets Lead the Housing Rebound

by Alexis McGee 25. June 2009 16:40

First California, then Florida, now Nevada. The 3 biggest foreclosure states are all seeing a rebound. Does the writing on the wall get any clearer than that? Those 3 markets represent 50% of the foreclosures nationwide. Yes foreclosures are high, but buyers are grabbing deals as fast as they can. Are you?

It seems like Cramer and I are the only one noticing... As much as you can find this in local press, it is definitely not making the main stream media. I'm glad you found my blog... read on... and join me on Tuesday, June 30th, for the rest of the details for FREE.

Local existing-home sales surge during May
Month's total up 42.5 percent from year earlier

By HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Sales of existing homes increased for the fourth straight month in May and signs of a price bottom are starting to appear, Las Vegas housing analyst Dennis Smith said Wednesday.

"It could be. Let's get through the summer before we say anything," the president of Home Builders Research said. "It's hard to predict or analyze how to get through the new inventory you hear about of 20,000 foreclosures that haven't hit the market yet."

Home Builders Research reported 3,714 resales in May, a 42.5 percent increase from the same month a year ago and up from 3,652 in April. For the first time in more than a year, the median price was unchanged from the previous month at $130,000. It's still down 43.5 percent, or about $100,000, from a year ago. Total resales for the year are up 61 percent to 15,728, an amazing statistic considering all the negative reports bombarding the public almost daily, Smith said.

"Even if the majority of the sales are to investors, we are still selling a lot of inventory," he said. "Dring this difficult economic climate, it certainly appears there will be a consistent supply of folks looking for homes to rent."

New-home sales also rose in May, to 378 recorded closings, compared with 343 in April. They fell 59 percent from 921 in May 2008. Smith said he doesn't expect to see the number of traditional, single-family new-home sales increase much this year. The median price of a new home fell to $212,990 in May, down 23.5 percent, or $65,255, from a year ago. The price has fallen from its peak of $350,615 in early 2006. Smith counted 308 new home permits in May, bringing the total for the year to 897, a 51 percent decrease from a year ago.

The number of homes for sale on the Multiple Listing Service dipped to 21,181 in May, but it's going up again when bank-owned properties that haven't been listed yet come on the market, Smith said. "They're going to release them a little at a time, we hope," he said. "You may see the number of new listings start to increase. Once we get through the summer, we'll know where we're at in inventory."

Las Vegas-based SalesTraq reported 383 new-home sales in May, a 56 percent decrease from a year ago. Existing-home closings increased 66 percent to 4,476, though 64 percent of those sales were bank-owned homes, the research firm reported. Those homes had a median closing price of $106,000, while homes that were not bank-owned had a median closing price of $140,000. The overall median was $122,000, down 45.8 percent from a year ago.

While President Barack Obama and Congress debate financial regulatory reform, foreclosures continue to mount as embattled housing markets bump along the bottom, said Alexis McGee, president of Sacramento, Calif.-based Foreclosures.com.

Still, some parts of the country are rebounding. Foreclosures are declining, while home sales and average sale prices are increasing, she said. "We're in a slow, but definite recovery mode," McGee said. "While foreclosures persist and unemployment still worsens, there are positives in the market that give a strong indication that housing markets have bottomed."

In Southern California, home sales rose for the 11th consecutive month in May. A shift toward sales of mid- to high-end homes drove the median price to $249,000, the first increase since July 2007, San Diego-based MDA DataQuick reported. The company reported that 20,775 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in San Diego, Orange, Los Angeles, Ventura, Riverside and San Bernardino counties last month. That was the most since May 2006.

I'm Sticking to My Guns on Housing
By Jim Cramer
RealMoney Columnist
 

It's not easy being the only guy on earth who believes that house price stabilization is upon us and that house price depreciation is in the past. Not easy at all. In fact, the belligerent press I get on it is only exceeded by everything else I say!

But let's go over the data. The classic signal of a bottom requires two components: gigantic increases in sales and stabilization of price. Those are always the bottom and have been in every single housing cycle. Would it kill the opponents of my thesis to look into that fact?

Now, the worst four housing markets in the country -- California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada -- have all seen that exact combination, with Nevada being the latest in stats that came out yesterday. These four states represent 50% of the housing market. So, we have the definition of the cycle bottom -- not appreciation but stabilization -- in half the market, but more important, in the part of the market that caused the housing crisis.

When I made my prediction a year ago that we would bottom and house prices would stabilize at the end of this month, I made it clear that I was calling for the classic cycle bottom: drying-up of inventory because of a sales explosion coupled with price stabilization, and we are having that happen in the most problematic half of the market.

We keep getting more confirmatory data why. This morning Lennar (LEN) reported a really good quarter and commented that cancellations were down 15%. We have seen numbers in the $40s during the free fall. What does this mean? Buyers are finding ways to get credit rather than show remorse. They are using the $8,000 credit and taking advantage of rates that are a full point below last year's rates.

I do not like the stock of Lennar. For all of the good news, they will not make anything on the houses they are selling because the foreclosed inventory, often in the exact same areas they are building, will keep their prices low.

That will only end when the foreclosed inventory runs out. But what I wonder is why do people think that these stats don't matter? Are they all waiting for Shiller to call a bottom? What do they need to see happen?

As for me, I am a buyer of JPMorgan, Wells Fargo (WFC) and Bank of America (BAC) off this. They will be the big performers. They are the beneficiaries because they profit from the huge increase in sales. It is a double bonus: A huge increase in sales means end of sitting on foreclosed property and an end to the charges.

This trend is the most important trend in the economy today. Of course, if unemployment keeps ticking up and if rates shoot up, then the housing bottom will be nothing to write home about.

But right now I am the only one writing and it seems wrong. But I will keep doing it because the facts are the story.

No Jim, you are not alone! I've been writing about the housing recovery for quite some time. You can catch up here:
Florida Home Sales Up 9th Month in Row
Existing Home Sales Up Two Months in a Row
So Cal Home Prices Up 1st Time Since 2007
Housing Hits Bottom
California Home Price Bottom?
More on Housing Bottom and Our Plan

It's time to stop talking about this folks and do something now! Make sure you join me in my Free Foreclosure Investor Webinar this Tuesday, June 30th, at 6pm PDT (9pm EST) where I will share with you this news and more... and get you off the fence doing deals! The stars are aligned. Lets put some money in the bank! Register Here or call 800-310-7730 x2
FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , , ,

Housing Market | The Economy

Florida Home Sales Up 9th Month in Row

by Alexis McGee 25. June 2009 06:23

California is not alone. Florida just reported their existing home sales rose in May - the ninth month in a row that sales activity increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors. Also, for the first time in many months, the statewide median sales price in May for existing homes and for existing condos rose over the previous month's figure. (Read more about "the perfect storm" in housing below....)

Existing home sales rose 16 percent last month with a total of 13,921 homes sold statewide compared to 12,044 homes sold in May 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in May increased 6.2 percent over April's statewide activity. Florida Realtors also reported a 21 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condos in May; existing condo sales last month rose 3.8 percent over the total units sold in April.

"The improving sales of existing single family homes and condos is a trend we have been seeing for several months in Florida - what is new in this month's data release is that we are seeing evidence of prices beginning to firm," says Dr. Sean Snaith, director for the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness. "While one month of data does not a trend make, it is the first green shoot we have seen in some time as far as prices are concerned." (Read Housing Hits Bottom)

Thirteen of Florida's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in May and 13 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A majority of the state's MSAs have reported increased sales for 11 consecutive months.

Florida's median sales price for existing homes last month was $144,400; a year ago, it was $203,800 for a 29 percent decrease. However, the statewide existing home median price in May was higher than the statewide median price reported in each of the previous four months.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in April 2009 was $169,800, down 14.9 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $256,700 in April; in Massachusetts, it was $275,000; in Maryland, it was $255,587; and in New York, it was $185,000.

According to NAR's latest housing industry outlook (Read Existing Home Sales Up Two Months in a Row), buyers are responding to favorable market conditions. "Now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by Nov. 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers." Many homebuyers are taking advantage of the bargain prices offered on foreclosed listings in states like Florida, California and Nevada, Yun noted, which should "set the stage for healthy market conditions going forward."

More on California Comeback Here:
So Cal Home Prices Up 1st Time Since 2007
California Home Price Bottom?
No. California Home Sales Up 7th Month
So. California Home Sales Up 9th Month in a Row

To see two charts showing statistics for Florida and the state's MSAs CLICK HERE. One chart compares the volume of existing, single-family home sales and median sales prices in May 2009 to May 2008 based on Realtor transactions; the other compares the volume of existing, condominium sales and median sales prices May 2009 to May 2008 based on Realtor transactions.

When I speak of "the perfect storm" for todays housing market, what I am seeing is a large backlog of foreclosures working their way into the system now that the moratorium is lifted; at the same time I see a surge in loan modifications from both the Fed and many states requiring lenders to do more before foreclosing - stalling new foreclosure filings; and first time buyers jumping in to grab once in a lifetime deals with 3.5% down from FHA financing and $8000 tax credit (lapsing November 30). As an investor, it doesn't get any better than this.... where we can buy super cheap from motivated seller AND sell quickly from eager buyers.

Now you just need to know how to capitalize on this... I am happy to show you. Join me and my Guest Panelists on Tuesday, June 30th, for my Free Foreclosure Investor Webinar and Conference Call at 6pm PDT, 9pm EST. You must register in advance as my conference provider limits our free space. Details Here or 800-310-7730 x2.

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , , ,

Housing Market | The Economy

Optimistic News and Housing Update

by Alexis McGee 24. June 2009 10:39

Good news today ahead of an afternoon policy statement from the Federal Reserve. The good news came early on with durable goods orders (orders for big-ticket items) increasing 1.8% in May, the same as in April. Expectations were for a drop of 0.9% in the recent month. This is more evidence of "green shoots" of a slow economic recovery currently in place...

A gauge of capital spending in the report also jumped. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose by 4.8%, after decreasing 2.9% in April. It was the largest increase since 8.2% in September 2004.

Another optimistic sign on business spending came from Oracle. The software maker beat estimates and issued better-than-expected guidance. Oracle's outlook boosted other tech companies that cater to business clients.

Also out today was news on new home sales. The Commerce Department said today that sales dropped 0.6 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, from a downwardly revised April rate of 344,000. Sales were down nearly 33 percent from May last year.

The results fell short of economists' forecast of a 360,000 sales pace, according to Thomson Reuters. However, many analysts think new home sales hit bottom in January and will increase gradually as the economy gathers steam.

The good news was the median sales price of $221,600 was up 4.2 percent from April, but still down 3.4 percent from a year ago.

There were 292,000 new homes for sale at the end of May, down more than 2 percent from April. At the current rate of sales, that's a 10-month supply. The inventory of homes for sale "will remain enormous, particularly with increased competition coming from distressed sales of existing homes," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief economist with MFR Inc.

The Fed is due to wrap up a two-day meeting and release a policy statement at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and is unlikely to announce any other major changes in policy, though traders will be watching for any changes in the Fed's economic outlook or signals that it's beginning to consider an exit strategy from its quantitative-easing program.

I will be discuss this and more this Tuesday, June 30th, at 6pm PDT (9pm EST) in my FREE Foreclosure Buyers Strategy Session, Live Webinar and Conference Call. I will cover the recent changes in the housing market, the effects of the government stimulus programs in place (and pending new tax credits) and what my strategies are for now through the rest of the year. You don't want to miss this Call. Register Now HERE.

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , ,

Financial Markets | Housing Market | The Economy

Existing Home Sales Up Two Months in a Row

by Alexis McGee 23. June 2009 08:23

Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and $8000 first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.

Existing-home sales rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent.

Total housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5 percent to 3.80 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.1-month supply in April.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, expected an improvement. “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates,” he said. “First-time buyers also are being drawn off the sidelines by the $8,000 tax credit, which is helping to absorb inventory."

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage edged up to 4.86 percent in May from a record low 4.81 percent in April; the rate was 6.04 percent in May 2008.

An NAR practitioner survey in May showed first-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of transactions, and that the number of buyers looking at homes is nearly 10 percentage points higher than a year ago. “This is the time of year when we see large increases in the number of repeat buyers, who are benefitting from sales to entry-level buyers,” Yun said. “Investors appear less active, but are more prevalent in areas with large price corrections.”

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said “The first-time buyer tax credit should be expanded to all buyers of primary homes regardless of income. Extending the credit into 2010 would allow more time for the market to catch up with underlying demand, in part because many families with children, who normally time their purchase based on school year considerations, do not have enough time to move before the start of school in late August." (More Here: $15,000 home tax credit to all)

“Freeing a pent-up demand in housing will absorb inventory at a faster pace, strengthen communities and stabilize home prices earlier,” McMillan said.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $173,000 in May, down 16.8 percent from a year earlier. Distressed properties, which declined to 33 percent of all sales in May from 45 percent in April, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes.

“The decline in the distressed sales share likely results from an increase of repeat buyers in May,” Yun said. “First-time buyers are concentrated in the lower price ranges, which include most of the distressed sales.”

Regional existing-home sales breakdown:

Northeast up 3.9 percent to an annual level of 800,000 in May, but are 10.1 percent below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,600, which is 12.5 percent below May 2008.

Midwest up 9.0 percent in May to a pace of 1.09 million but are 4.4 percent below May 2008. The median price in the Midwest was $145,800, which is 10.4 percent lower than a year ago.

South was flat at an annual pace of 1.74 million in May but are 8.9 percent below a year ago. The median price in the South was $157,400, down 9.9 percent from May 2008.

West slipped 0.9 percent to an annual rate of 1.14 million in May, but are 11.8 percent higher than May 2008. The median price in the West was $197,700, down 30.6 percent from a year ago.

More News Later today and tomorrow:

The Federal Reserve will begins a two-day meeting on Tuesday. The concluding statement, released Wednesday afternoon, will be closely watched for any insight into the Fed's plans to wind down or continue market relief measures and also for any changes to its view of the economy. Stay tuned for those details and how they will affect you, the foreclosure buyer, here.

Tonight's the Night! I will be meeting with my Mastering clients in my Mini Lab Webinar, sharing my newest strategies with Panelist, Investor, Coach Mary Kay on how to "Contract and Flip Your Deals to Investors". This is a really hot topic as making sure you structure your deal right and dot your "i's" and cross your "t's" properly so you get your seller to say yes to your wholesale contract, and your investors say yes to funding (or flipping) them. Make sure you register as we are almost of out space! Call 800-310-7730 x2 or Go Here.

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

$15,000 home tax credit to all

by Alexis McGee 22. June 2009 08:41

Lawmakers are calling to raise and extend the $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers to $15,000 and apply it to anyone who buys a home, with no income limitation. In addition there is pending legislation that would even create a new "temporary" $3,000 tax credit to help defray the costs of refinancing mortgages on principal residences.

Currently, a lot of people are taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit. Expanding the credit would absolutely boost the housing market. I love the idea to enhance and expand the housing market with incentives. It's time to write to your Congressman and Senators and tell them you want this happen as soon as possible.

Here are the current proposals:

*A Senate bill to expand the tax credit to $15,000 (up to 10% of the purchase price) for any home buyer regardless of income was introduced this month by Sen. Johnny Isakson, R-Ga. It is co-sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn.

The current $8,000 tax credit does not apply to singles earning more than $95,000 a year and couples who earn more than $170,000. Business leaders want the income caps eliminated. Buyers do not have to repay the tax credit if they occupy the home for three years or more.

"It would go a long way toward inducing trade-up buyers into the market," says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR.

*H.R. 2619 would keep the $8,000 credit in place until June 2010 and expand it to all home buyers was introduced last month by Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Texas. It would also create an unprecedented $3,000 credit to help offset "qualified refinancing costs" -- closing fees, lender charges and the like -- through next June.

*H.R. 2606 "The Home Buying Credit Expansion Act" would extend the current credit through Dec. 31, 2010 and would open the credit to all buyers of principal residences.

Mary Trupo, public policy director for the National Association of Realtors, said "if (the credit) is working for first-time homebuyers, then why not for all buyers, with no income limitations? We would like to see the expiration date extended (beyond Nov. 30). Expanding the credit is really the way to stabilize the (housing) market -- by making it available to everybody."

Jed Smith, managing director for quantitative research, said earlier projections about the first-time buyer credit ranged into the hundreds of thousands of additional sales. Broadening the credit to all buyers would almost certainly push the total higher.

Whatever form these tax incentives take shape, there is a significant bi-partisen push to extend the housing tax credit and open it up to everybody. Of course I am hopeful they will come quickly, but I am not waiting for it. There is considerable demand right now in the first time homebuyer market, so I am positioning myself and my clients to buy entry level foreclosure homes at wholesale prices now from motivated banks and distressed sellers.

Whether you buy low, fix and quickly sell high, or buy and flip your deal to another investor, it is critical that you structure and contract your deal properly so both your seller and your money partners say yes to your deals. And tomorrow, in my Mastering Mini Lab Interactive Webinar and Conference Call at 6pm PDT (9pm EST) I will show you how. Call 800-310-7730 x2 or register here. Make sure you don't miss this important, live, one time event! Talk to you then!

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , , ,

Financial Markets | Housing Market | The Economy

No Cal Home Prices up 12.3%; Sales Up 9th Month

by Alexis McGee 19. June 2009 07:02

First it was So Cal, now No Cal.. the California Comeback continues. The median price paid for a San Francisco Bay Area home jumped in May as more expensive homes started to sell again and the overall number of homes sold increased for the ninth month in a row.

The median price paid for a home in the nine-county region rose to $341,500, up 12.3 percent from $304,000 in April, but down 33.9 percent from $517,000 in May 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego. The median’s rise over April marked the second consecutive month-to-month increase.

Last month’s $37,500 jump from April was due to an increase in sales of homes financed with home loans for more than $417,000, commonly called “jumbo” mortgages. They accounted for 25.5 percent of the Bay Area’s home sales last month, the highest since 25.8 percent last October. Two years ago it was more than 60 percent. Sales of $800,000-plus existing single-family houses rose to 13.2 percent of all house resales last month, up from 9.8 percent in April and the highest since they were 14.8 percent of sales last October. Sales of sub-$400,000 existing houses dropped to 57.5 percent of May sales, down from 62.2 percent in April and the lowest since 56.5 percent in November.

A total of 7,447 new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 4.3 percent from 7,139 in April and up 19.8 percent from 6,216 in May 2008. The May 2008 sales were the lowest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. May sales have averaged 9,881 and peaked in May 2004 at 13,567 sales.

Last month 42.1 percent of all homes resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months. A year ago the percentage was 27.7 percent, while the peak was 52.0 percent this February. By county, foreclosure resales ranged last month from 7.7 percent of all resales in San Francisco to 65.1 percent in Solano.

The typical monthly mortgage payment that Bay Area buyers committed themselves to paying was $1,443 last month, down from $2,458 a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, current payments are 44.6 percent below typical payments in the spring of 1989, the peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 59.0 percent below the current cycle's peak in July 2007.

Foreclosure activity is off its recent peak but remains high by historical standards, while financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at an all-time low, as is financing with multiple mortgages. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, and non-owner occupied buying activity is above-average in some markets, MDA DataQuick reported.

Sales Volume

Median Price

All homes

May-08

May-09

%Chng

May-08

May-09

%Chng

Alameda        

   1,186  

  1,477  

  24.5%  

$475,000  

$330,000  

-30.5%

Contra Costa   

   1,206  

  1,694  

  40.5%  

$390,500  

$234,500  

-39.9%

Marin          

     226  

    220  

  -2.7%  

$899,000  

$620,000  

-31.0%

Napa           

     105  

    121  

  15.2%  

$475,000  

$370,000  

-22.1%

Santa Clara    

   1,467  

  1,688  

  15.1%  

$620,500  

$445,000  

-28.3%

San Francisco  

     593  

    498  

-16.0%  

$790,000  

$634,000  

-19.7%

San Mateo      

     511  

    516  

   1.0%  

$708,000  

$550,000  

-22.3%

Solano         

     465  

    706  

  51.8%  

$300,000  

$189,500  

-36.8%

Sonoma         

     457  

    527  

  15.3%  

$415,000  

$302,000  

-27.2%

Bay Area       

   6,216  

  7,447  

  19.8%  

$517,000  

$341,500  

-33.9%

Sales have been increasing for many months in California and as I've said, at some point prices will start to stabilize as well. We are now starting to see the signs of a pricing bottom. If you've missed my posts, please read this:
So Cal Home Prices Up 1st Time Since 2007
Housing Hits Bottom
California Home Price Bottom?
No. California Home Sales Up 7th Month
New Starts and Permits Down: Housing Bottom is Here
So. California Home Sales Up 9th Month in a Row

Many of you aren not prepared for this. You wish you were calling motivated sellers and REO lenders and their agents about their discounted properties but you don't have the money and your sure what to do, right? Let me start by saying there are deals out there, but not all sellers are equally motivated. You must know how to qualify those that are worth your time, versus those that are a waste. Then you must know what to offer them to lock in your 15% profit on your purchase. And you must know how to contract your deals so they get accepted by both your seller  -- as well as your money partner (to either flip your deal to fund your hard money loan). Yes, there's a lot involved, but I can help you.

This is exactly what I will be talking about in my next Mastering Mini Lab Live Webinar, Tuesday, June 23rd at 6pm PDT. You must register in advance as this is an interactive webinar, myself and my Panelist Investor Coach Mary Kay will be going over how to "Contract and Flip Your Deals to Investors" and will take your questions throughout the Call. And there are pre-requisites to attend. Call 800-310-7730 x2 for the details. Or visit:  http://www.foreclosures.com/pages/mastering_community.asp

FacebookDigg It!DZone It!StumbleUponTechnoratiRedditDel.icio.usNewsVineFurlBlinkList

Currently rated 5.0 by 1 people

  • Currently 5/5 Stars.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5

Tags: , , , ,

Financial Markets | Housing Market | The Economy

Log in